Computational modelling for decision-making: where, why, what, who and how

In order to deal with an increasingly complex world, we need ever more sophisticated computational models that can help us make decisions wisely and understand the potential consequences of choices. But creating a model requires far more than just raw data and technical skills: it requires a close collaboration between model commissioners, developers, users and reviewers. Good modelling requires its users and commissioners to understand more about the whole process, including the different kinds of purpose a model can have and the different technical bases. This paper offers a guide to the process of commissioning, developing and deploying models across a wide range of domains from public policy to science and engineering. It provides two checklists to help potential modellers, commissioners and users ensure they have considered the most significant factors that will determine success. We conclude there is a need to reinforce modelling as a discipline, so that misconstruction is less likely; to increase understanding of modelling in all domains, so that the misuse of models is reduced; and to bring commissioners closer to modelling, so that the results are more useful

Allies Welcomed to Advance Racial Equity (AWARE) Faculty Seminar Series: Program Design and Implementation

Introduction: In the wake of George Floyd's murder, White faculty in our department began to express the desire to gain a greater understanding of structural racism and racial inequity. To facilitate this learning, support allyship, and mitigate the emotional labor and taxation that frequently falls on faculty of color to respond to these appeals, we developed AWARE (Allies Welcomed to Advance Racial Equity), a faculty seminar series primarily designed for and led by a majority White faculty to tackle the topics of structural racism, Whiteness, and Anti-racist action. Methods: We developed a 6-session seminar series, identifying 5 White faculty as lecturers and a cadre of Black and White volunteer facilitators, to lead 60-minute sessions comprised of lecture, facilitated small group reflection, and large group sharing, that reviewed key topics/texts on structural racism, Whiteness, and Anti-racism. Results: Attendance ranged from 26 to 37 participants at each session. About 80% of faculty participated in at least 1 session of the program. The majority of participants (85%) felt "more empowered to influence their current environment to be more inclusive of others" and were "better equipped to advocate for themselves or others." Most (81%) felt "more connected to their colleagues following completion of the program." Ultimately, faculty thought highly of the program upon completion with 26/27 (96%) stating they would recommend the program to a colleague. Discussion: We offer a reproducible model to improve departmental climate by engaging in the shared labor of educating our colleagues and communities about structural racism, Whiteness, and Anti-racism to create a point of entry into reflection, dialogue, and deliberate actions for change

REFINE (reduced frequency ImmuNE checkpoint inhibition in cancers): A multi-arm phase II basket trial testing reduced intensity immunotherapy across different cancers

Background Immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICI) have revolutionised treating advanced cancers. ICI are administered intravenously every 2–6 weeks for up to 2 years, until cancer progression/unacceptable toxicity. Physiological efficacy is observed at lower doses than those used as standard of care (SOC). Pharmacodynamic studies indicate sustained target occupancy, despite a pharmacological half-life of 2–3 weeks. Reducing frequency of administration may be possible without compromising outcomes. The REFINE trial aims to limit individual patient exposure to ICI whilst maintaining efficacy, with potential benefits in quality of life and reduced drug treatment/attendance costs. Methods/Design REFINE is a randomised phase II, multi-arm, multi-stage (MAMS) adaptive basket trial investigating extended interval administration of ICIs. Eligible patients are those responding to conventionally dosed ICI at 12 weeks. In stage I, patients (n = 160 per tumour-specific cohort) will be randomly allocated (1:1) to receive maintenance ICI at SOC vs extended dose interval. REFINE is currently recruiting UK patients with locally advanced or metastatic renal cell carcinoma (RCC) who have tolerated and responded to initial nivolumab/ipilimumab, randomised to receive maintenance nivolumab SOC (480 mg 4 weekly) vs extended interval (480 mg 8 weekly). Additional tumour cohorts are planned. Subject to satisfactory outcomes (progression-free survival) stage II will investigate up to 5 different treatment intervals. Secondary outcome measures include overall survival, quality-of-life, treatment-related toxicity, mean incremental pathway costs and quality-adjusted life-years per patient. REFINE is funded by the Jon Moulton Charity Trust and Medical Research Council, sponsored by University College London (UCL), and coordinated by the MRC CTU at UCL

Minor neurological signs and behavioural function at age 2 years in neonatal hypoxic ischaemic encephalopathy (HIE)

Background: Neurodevelopmental follow-up in Neonatal Hypoxic Ischaemic Encephalopathy (HIE) typically focusses on major neuromotor (cerebral palsy, CP) and severe cognitive impairment. Outcomes in those without major neuromotor impairment are less well explored. Objectives: To examine behavioural, cognitive and neurological outcomes after neonatal HIE, in a clinical cohort of children without CP, at age 2 years. Methods: Clinical routine outcome data from children admitted to a tertiary centre with neonatal HIE for hypothermia treatment between 05/08/09 - 30/05/2016. Children were assessed for neuromotor status – particularly minor neurological signs (MNS), with Bayley Scales of Infant and Toddler Development III (Bayley III) or Ages and Stages Questionnaire-3 (ASQ), Child Behavior Checklist 1.5-5 (CBCL), Quantitative Checklist for Autism in Toddlers (Q-CHAT). Results: Of 107 children, 75.5% had normal neurology, 12.1% CP, 12.1% MNS. Children with CP were excluded from analyses. For those without CP, Bayley-III scores were in the average range for the majority; mild cognitive delay observed in 5%, 4.2% language, 1.3% motor development; severe delay in 1.3% for cognitive, 4.2% for language. More than in the normative population scored in clinical ranges for CBCL externalising, sleep, and other problems. No significant difference was seen for Q-CHAT. Children with MNS were significantly more likely to have impaired Bayley-III scores, parent-reported internalising, sleep, and other problems. Conclusions: In this clinical cohort, the majority of children had favourable outcome at 2 years. However, children with MNS were at risk for cognitive and behavioural difficulties and will benefit from enhanced clinical follow-up and support

Observed bodies generate object-based spatial codes

Contemporary studies of spatial and social cognition frequently use human figures as stimuli. The interpretation of such studies may be complicated by spatial compatibility effects that emerge when researchers employ spatial responses, and participants spontaneously code spatial relationships about an observed body. Yet, the nature of these spatial codes – whether they are location- or object-based, and coded from the perspective of the observer or the figure – has not been determined. Here, we investigated this issue by exploring spatial compatibility effects arising for objects held by a visually presented whole-bodied schematic human figure. In three experiments, participants responded to the colour of the object held in the figure’s left or right hand, using left or right key presses. Left-right compatibility effects were found relative to the participant’s egocentric perspective, rather than the figure’s. These effects occurred even when the figure was rotated by 90 degrees to the left or to the right, and the coloured objects were aligned with the participant’s midline. These findings are consistent with spontaneous spatial coding from the participant’s perspective and relative to the normal upright orientation of the body. This evidence for object-based spatial coding implies that the domain general cognitive mechanisms that result in spatial compatibility effects may contribute to certain spatial perspective-taking and social cognition phenomena

Crop Updates 2008 - Farming Systems

This session covers thirty nine papers from different authors: PLENARY 1. Developments in grain end use, Dr John de Majnik, New Grain Products, GRDC, Mr Paul Meibusch, New Farm Products and Services, GRDC, Mr Vince Logan, New Products Executive Manager, GRDC PRESENTATIONS 2. Global warming potential of wheat production in Western Australia: A life cycle assessment, Louise Barton1, Wahid Biswas2 and Daniel Carter3, 1School of Earth & Geographical Sciences, The University of Western Australia, 2Centre of Excellence in Cleaner Production, Division of Science and Engineering, Curtin University of Technology, 3Department of Agriculture and Food 3. How much fuel does your farm use for different farm operations? Nicolyn Short1, Jodie Bowling1, Glen Riethmuller1, James Fisher2 and Moin Salam1, 1Department of Agriculture and Food, 2Muresk Institute, Curtin University of Technology 4. Poor soil water storage and soil constraints are common in WA cropping soils, Stephen Davies, Jim Dixon, Dennis Van Gool and Alison Slade, Department of Agriculture and Food, Bob Gilkes, School of Earth and Geographical Sciences, University of Western Australia 5. Developing potential adaptations to climate change for low rainfall farming system using economic analysis tool. STEP, Megan Abrahams, Caroline Peek, Dennis Van Gool, Daniel Gardiner and Kari-Lee Falconer, Department of Agriculture and Food 6. What soil limitations affect the profitability of claying on non-wetting sandplain soils? David Hall1, Jeremy Lemon1, Harvey Jones1, Yvette Oliver2 and Tania Butler1, 1Department of Agriculture and Food, 2CSIRO Div Sustainable Ecology, Perth 7. Farming systems adapting to a variable climate; Two case studies, Kari-Lee Falconer, Department of Agriculture and Food 8. Importance of accounting for variation in crop yield potential when making fertiliser decisions, Michael Robertson and Yvette Oliver, CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems, Floreat 9. Soil acidity is a widespread problem across the Avon River Basin, Stephen Carr1, Chris Gazey2, David York1 and Joel Andrew1, 1Precision SoilTech, 2Department of Agriculture and Food 10. The use of soil testing kits and ion-selective electrodes for the analysis of plant available nutrients in Western Australian soils, Michael Simeoni and Bob Gilkes School of Earth and Geographical Sciences, University of Western Australia 11. Redlegged earth mite resistance and integrated strategies for their control in Western Australia, Mangano G. Peter and Micic Svetlana, Department of Agriculture and Food 12. The economics of treating soil pH (liming), Chris Gazey, Steve Davies, Dave Gartner and Adam Clune, Department of Agriculture and Food, 13. Health benefits – A future differentiator for high value grains, Matthew Morell, Theme Leader, CSIRO Food Futures Flagship 14. Carbon in Sustralian cropping soils – We need to be realistic, Alan Umbers (M Rur Sc), GRDC/DAFF Sustainable Industries Initiative Project 15. AGWEST® Bartolo bladder clover (Trifolium spumosum) − a low cost annual pasture legume for the wheat/sheep zone, Angelo Loi, Brad Nutt and Clinton Revell, Department of Agriculture and Food 16. Maximising the value of point based soil sampling: Monitering trends in soil pH through time, Joel Andrew1, David York1, Stephen Carr1 and Chris Gazey2, 1Precision SoilTech, 2Department of Agriculture and Food 17. Improved crop root growth and productivity with deep ripping and deep placed lime, Stephen Davies1, Geoff Kew2*, Chris Gazey1, David Gartner1 and Adam Clune1, 1Department of Agriculture and Food, 2School of Earth and Geographical Sciences University of Western Australia, *Presenting author 18. The role of pastures in hosting Root Lesion Nematode (RLN, Pratylenchus neglectus), Vivien Vanstone, Ali Bhatti and Ming Pei You, Department of Agriculture and Food 19. To rip or not to rip. When does it pay? Imma Farre, Bill Bowden and Stephen Davies, Department of Agriculture and Food 20. Can yield be predicted from remotely sensed data, Henry Smolinski, Jane Speijers and John Bruce, Department of Agriculture and Food 21. Rotations for profit, David McCarthy and Gary Lang, Facey Group, Wickepin, WA 22. Rewriting rules for the new cropping economics, David Rees, Consultant, Albany 23. Reducing business risk in Binnu! – A case study, Rob Grima, Department of Agriculture and Food 24. Does improved ewe management offer grain farmers much extra profit? John Young, Farming Systems Analysis Service, Ross Kingwell, Department of Agriculture and Food, and UWA, Chris Oldham, Department of Agriculture and Food RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS 25. Crop establishment and productivity with improved root zone drainage, Dr Derk Bakker, Research Officer, Department of Agriculture and Food 26. Will wheat production in Western Australia be more risky in the future? Imma Farre and Ian Foster, Department of Agriculture and Food PAPERS 27. Building farmers’ adaptive capacity to manage seasonal variability and climate change, David Beard, Department of Agriculture and Food 28. Precision placement increases crop phosphorus uptake under variable rainfall: Simulation studies, Wen Chen1 2, Richard Bell1, Bill Bowden2, Ross Brennan2, Art Diggle2 and Reg Lunt2, 1School of Environmental Science, Murdoch University, 2Department of Agriculture and Food 29. What is the role of grain legumes on red soil farms? Rob Grima, Department of Agriculture and Food 30. Fertiliser placement influences plant growth and seed yield of grain crops at different locations of WA, Qifu Ma1, Zed Rengel1, Bill Bowden2, Ross Brennan2, Reg Lunt2 and Tim Hilder2, 1Soil Science & Plant Nutrition, University of Western Australia, 2Department of Agriculture and Food 31. A review of pest and disease occurrences for 2007, Peter Mangano and Dusty Severtson, Department of Agriculture and Food 32. Effect of stocking rates on grain yield and quality of wheat in Western Australia in 2007, Shahajahan Miyan, Sam Clune, Barb Sage and Tenielle Martin, Department of Agriculture and Food 33. Storing grain is not ‘set and forget’ management, Chris Newman, Department of Agriculture and Food 34. Improving understanding of soil plant available water capacity (PAWC): The WA soil water database (APSoil), Yvette Oliver, Neal Dalgliesh and Michael Robertson, CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems 35. The impact of management decisions in drought on a low rainfall northern wheatbelt farm, Caroline Peek and Andrew Blake, Department of Agriculture and Food 37. Cullen – A native pasture legume shows promise for the low-medium rainfall cropping zone, Megan Ryan, Richard Bennett, Tim Colmer, Daniel Real, Jiayin Pang, Lori Kroiss, Dion Nicol and Tammy Edmonds-Tibbett, School of Plant Biology, The University of Western Australia and Future Farm Industries CRC 38. Climate risk management tools – useful, or just another gadget? Lisa Sherriff, Kari-Lee Falconer, Daniel Gardiner and Ron McTaggart Department of Agriculture and Food 39. Benefits of crop rotation for management of Root Lesion Nematode (RLN, Pratylenchus neglectus), Vivien Vanstone, Sean Kelly and Helen Hunter, Department of Agriculture and Foo

From upright to upside-down presentation: A spatio-temporal ERP study of the parametric effect of rotation on face and house processing

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>While there is a general agreement that picture-plane inversion is more detrimental to face processing than to other seemingly complex visual objects, the origin of this effect is still largely debatable. Here, we address the question of whether face inversion reflects a quantitative or a qualitative change in processing mode by investigating the pattern of event-related potential (ERP) response changes with picture plane rotation of face and house pictures. Thorough analyses of topographical (Scalp Current Density maps, SCD) and dipole source modeling were also conducted.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We find that whilst stimulus orientation affected in a similar fashion participants' response latencies to make face and house decisions, only the ERPs in the N170 latency range were modulated by picture plane rotation of faces. The pattern of N170 amplitude and latency enhancement to misrotated faces displayed a curvilinear shape with an almost linear increase for rotations from 0° to 90° and a dip at 112.5° up to 180° rotations. A similar discontinuity function was also described for SCD occipito-temporal and temporal current foci with no topographic distribution changes, suggesting that upright and misrotated faces activated similar brain sources. This was confirmed by dipole source analyses showing the involvement of bilateral sources in the fusiform and middle occipital gyri, the activity of which was differentially affected by face rotation.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Our N170 findings provide support for both the quantitative and qualitative accounts for face rotation effects. Although the qualitative explanation predicted the curvilinear shape of N170 modulations by face misrotations, topographical and source modeling findings suggest that the same brain regions, and thus the same mechanisms, are probably at work when processing upright and rotated faces. Taken collectively, our results indicate that the same processing mechanisms may be involved across the whole range of face orientations, but would operate in a non-linear fashion. Finally, the response tuning of the N170 to rotated faces extends previous reports and further demonstrates that face inversion affects perceptual analyses of faces, which is reflected within the time range of the N170 component.</p

Basic science232. Certolizumab pegol prevents pro-inflammatory alterations in endothelial cell function

Background: Cardiovascular disease is a major comorbidity of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) and a leading cause of death. Chronic systemic inflammation involving tumour necrosis factor alpha (TNF) could contribute to endothelial activation and atherogenesis. A number of anti-TNF therapies are in current use for the treatment of RA, including certolizumab pegol (CZP), (Cimzia ®; UCB, Belgium). Anti-TNF therapy has been associated with reduced clinical cardiovascular disease risk and ameliorated vascular function in RA patients. However, the specific effects of TNF inhibitors on endothelial cell function are largely unknown. Our aim was to investigate the mechanisms underpinning CZP effects on TNF-activated human endothelial cells. Methods: Human aortic endothelial cells (HAoECs) were cultured in vitro and exposed to a) TNF alone, b) TNF plus CZP, or c) neither agent. Microarray analysis was used to examine the transcriptional profile of cells treated for 6 hrs and quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) analysed gene expression at 1, 3, 6 and 24 hrs. NF-κB localization and IκB degradation were investigated using immunocytochemistry, high content analysis and western blotting. Flow cytometry was conducted to detect microparticle release from HAoECs. Results: Transcriptional profiling revealed that while TNF alone had strong effects on endothelial gene expression, TNF and CZP in combination produced a global gene expression pattern similar to untreated control. The two most highly up-regulated genes in response to TNF treatment were adhesion molecules E-selectin and VCAM-1 (q 0.2 compared to control; p > 0.05 compared to TNF alone). The NF-κB pathway was confirmed as a downstream target of TNF-induced HAoEC activation, via nuclear translocation of NF-κB and degradation of IκB, effects which were abolished by treatment with CZP. In addition, flow cytometry detected an increased production of endothelial microparticles in TNF-activated HAoECs, which was prevented by treatment with CZP. Conclusions: We have found at a cellular level that a clinically available TNF inhibitor, CZP reduces the expression of adhesion molecule expression, and prevents TNF-induced activation of the NF-κB pathway. Furthermore, CZP prevents the production of microparticles by activated endothelial cells. This could be central to the prevention of inflammatory environments underlying these conditions and measurement of microparticles has potential as a novel prognostic marker for future cardiovascular events in this patient group. Disclosure statement: Y.A. received a research grant from UCB. I.B. received a research grant from UCB. S.H. received a research grant from UCB. All other authors have declared no conflicts of interes